Recommendations for environmental risk assessment of gene drive applications for malaria vector control.

Building on an exercise that identified potential harms from simulated investigational releases of a population suppression gene drive for malaria vector control, a series of online workshops identified nine recommendations to advance future environmental risk assessment of gene drive applications.

Risk management recommendations for environmental releases of gene drive modified insects.

The ability to engineer gene drives (genetic elements that bias their own inheritance) has sparked enthusiasm and concerns. Engineered gene drives could potentially be used to address long-standing challenges in the control of insect disease vectors, agricultural pests and invasive species, or help to rescue endangered species. However, risk concerns and uncertainty associated with potential environmental release of gene drive modified insects (GDMIs) have led some stakeholders to call for a global moratorium on such releases or the application of other strict precautionary measures to mitigate perceived risk assessment and risk management challenges. Instead, we provide recommendations that may help to improve the relevance of risk assessment and risk management frameworks for environmental releases of GDMIs. These recommendations include: (1) developing additional and more practical risk assessment guidance to ensure appropriate levels of safety; (2) making policy goals and regulatory decision-making criteria operational for use in risk assessment so that what constitutes harm is clearly defined; (3) ensuring a more dynamic interplay between risk assessment and risk management to manage uncertainty through closely interlinked pre-release modelling and post-release monitoring; (4) considering potential risks against potential benefits, and comparing them with those of alternative actions to account for a wider (management) context; and (5) implementing a modular, phased approach to authorisations for incremental acceptance and management of risks and uncertainty. Along with providing stakeholder engagement opportunities in the risk analysis process, the recommendations proposed may enable risk managers to make choices that are more proportionate and adaptive to potential risks, uncertainty and benefits of GDMI applications, and socially robust.

Potential use of gene drive modified insects against disease vectors, agricultural pests and invasive species poses new challenges for risk assessment.

Potential future application of engineered gene drives (GDs), which bias their own inheritance and can spread genetic modifications in wild target populations, has sparked both enthusiasm and concern. Engineered GDs in insects could potentially be used to address long-standing challenges in control of disease vectors, agricultural pests and invasive species, or help to rescue endangered species, and thus provide important public benefits. However, there are concerns that the deliberate environmental release of GD modified insects may pose different or new harms to animal and human health and the wider environment, and raise novel challenges for risk assessment. Risk assessors, risk managers, developers, potential applicants and other stakeholders at many levels are currently discussing whether there is a need to develop new or additional risk assessment guidance for the environmental release of GD modified organisms, including insects. Developing new or additional guidance that is useful and practical is a challenge, especially at an international level, as risk assessors, risk managers and many other stakeholders have different, often contrasting, opinions and perspectives toward the environmental release of GD modified organisms, and on the adequacy of current risk assessment frameworks for such organisms. Here, we offer recommendations to overcome some of the challenges associated with the potential future development of new or additional risk assessment guidance for GD modified insects and provide considerations on areas where further risk assessment guidance may be required.

Systematic identification of plausible pathways to potential harm via problem formulation for investigational releases of a population suppression gene drive to control the human malaria vector Anopheles gambiae in West Africa.

BACKGROUND: Population suppression gene drive has been proposed as a strategy for malaria vector control. A CRISPR-Cas9-based transgene homing at the doublesex locus (dsxFCRISPRh) has recently been shown to increase rapidly in frequency in, and suppress, caged laboratory populations of the malaria mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae. Here, problem formulation, an initial step in environmental risk assessment (ERA), was performed for simulated field releases of the dsxFCRISPRh transgene in West Africa. METHODS: Building on consultative workshops in Africa that previously identified relevant environmental and health protection goals for ERA of gene drive in malaria vector control, 8 potentially harmful effects from these simulated releases were identified. These were stratified into 46 plausible pathways describing the causal chain of events that would be required for potential harms to occur. Risk hypotheses to interrogate critical steps in each pathway, and an analysis plan involving experiments, modelling and literature review to test each of those risk hypotheses, were developed. RESULTS: Most potential harms involved increased human (n = 13) or animal (n = 13) disease transmission, emphasizing the importance to subsequent stages of ERA of data on vectorial capacity comparing transgenics to non-transgenics. Although some of the pathways (n = 14) were based on known anatomical alterations in dsxFCRISPRh homozygotes, many could also be applicable to field releases of a range of other transgenic strains of mosquito (n = 18). In addition to population suppression of target organisms being an accepted outcome for existing vector control programmes, these investigations also revealed that the efficacy of population suppression caused by the dsxFCRISPRh transgene should itself directly affect most pathways (n = 35). CONCLUSIONS: Modelling will play an essential role in subsequent stages of ERA by clarifying the dynamics of this relationship between population suppression and reduction in exposure to specific potential harms. This analysis represents a comprehensive identification of plausible pathways to potential harm using problem formulation for a specific gene drive transgene and organism, and a transparent communication tool that could inform future regulatory studies, guide subsequent stages of ERA, and stimulate further, broader engagement on the use of population suppression gene drive to control malaria vectors in West Africa.

Plasmodium falciparum (Haemosporodia: Plasmodiidae) and O'nyong-nyong Virus Development in a Transgenic Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae) Strain.

Transgenic Anopheles gambiae Giles (Diptera: Culicidae) mosquitoes have been developed that confer sexual sterility on males that carry a transgene encoding a protein which cuts ribosomal DNA. A relevant risk concern with transgenic mosquitoes is that their capacity to transmit known pathogens could be greater than the unmodified form. In this study, the ability to develop two human pathogens in these transgenic mosquitoes carrying a homing endonuclease which is expressed in the testes was compared with its nontransgenic siblings. Infections were performed with Plasmodium falciparum (Welch) and o'nyong-nyong virus (ONNV) and the results between the transgenic and nontransgenic sibling females were compared. There was no difference observed with ONNV isolate SG650 in intrathoracic infections or the 50% oral infectious dose measured at 14 d postinfection or in mean body titers. Some significant differences were observed for leg titers at the medium and highest doses for those individuals in which virus titer could be detected. No consistent difference was observed between the transgenic and nontransgenic comparator females in their ability to develop P. falciparum NF54 strain parasites. This particular transgene caused no significant effect in the ability of mosquitoes to become infected by these two pathogens in this genetic background. These results are discussed in the context of risk to human health if these transgenic individuals were present in the environment.

Public engagement pathways for emerging GM insect technologies.

Policy and management related to the release of organisms generated by emerging biotechnologies for pest management should be informed through public engagement. Regulatory decisions can be conceptually distinguished into the development of frameworks, the assessment of the release of a specific modified organism, and implementation decisions such as location and timing. Although these decisions are often intertwined in practice, the negotiation takes place at different stages of technology development and suggests different roles for public engagement. Some approaches to public engagement are more appropriate for different purposes and situations, and it is not always obvious how to go about matching the approach to the purpose. In addition to the diverse technologies involved in generating modified organisms, there are diverse publics with particular interests and different kinds of knowledge. Institutional interests range from commercial development to public regulation and future uptake. Contextual features, such as agency mandates, may limit or structure the extent and approach to public engagement. Different convening groups (government agencies, public interest groups, academics, businesses) and the kind of decision that is being considered determine what kind of input is needed and how the engaging groups will be constituted. This paper considers how the context of the release of genetically modified insects for pest control requires expanding approaches to the design of the public engagement.

Maintaining Quality of Candidate Strains of Transgenic Mosquitoes for Studies in Containment Facilities in Disease Endemic Countries.

Transgenic mosquitoes are being developed as novel components of area-wide approaches to vector-borne disease control. Best practice is to develop these in phases, beginning with laboratory studies, before moving to field testing and inclusion in control programs, to ensure safety and prevent costly field testing of unsuitable strains. The process of identifying and developing good candidate strains requires maintenance of transgenic colonies over many generations in containment facilities. By working in disease endemic countries with target vector populations, laboratory strains may be developed and selected for properties that will enhance intended control efficacy in the next phase, while avoiding traits that introduce unnecessary risks. Candidate strains aiming toward field use must consistently achieve established performance criteria, throughout the process of scaling up from small study colonies to production of sufficient numbers for field testing and possible open release. Maintenance of a consistent quality can be demonstrated by a set of insect quality and insectary operating indicators, measured over time at predetermined intervals. These indicators: inform comparability of studies using various candidate strains at different times and locations; provide evidence of conformity relevant to compliance with terms of approval for regulated use; and can be used to validate some assumptions related to risk assessments covering the contained phase and for release into the environment.

Comparison of Model Predictions and Laboratory Observations of Transgene Frequencies in Continuously-Breeding Mosquito Populations.

The persistence of transgenes in the environment is a consideration in risk assessments of transgenic organisms. Combining mathematical models that predict the frequency of transgenes and experimental demonstrations can validate the model predictions, or can detect significant biological deviations that were neither apparent nor included as model parameters. In order to assess the correlation between predictions and observations, models were constructed to estimate the frequency of a transgene causing male sexual sterility in simulated populations of a malaria mosquito Anopheles gambiae that were seeded with transgenic females at various proportions. Concurrently, overlapping-generation laboratory populations similar to those being modeled were initialized with various starting transgene proportions, and the subsequent proportions of transgenic individuals in populations were determined weekly until the transgene disappeared. The specific transgene being tested contained a homing endonuclease gene expressed in testes, I-PpoI, that cleaves the ribosomal DNA and results in complete male sexual sterility with no effect on female fertility. The transgene was observed to disappear more rapidly than the model predicted in all cases. The period before ovipositions that contained no transgenic progeny ranged from as little as three weeks after cage initiation to as long as 11 weeks.

Vertical stratification of adult mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) within a tropical rainforest in Sabah, Malaysia.

BACKGROUND: Malaria cases caused by Plasmodium knowlesi, a simian parasite naturally found in long-tailed and pig-tailed macaques, are increasing rapidly in Sabah, Malaysia. One hypothesis is that this increase is associated with changes in land use. A study was carried out to identify the anopheline vectors present in different forest types and to observe the human landing behaviour of mosquitoes. METHODS: Mosquito collections were carried out using human landing catches at ground and canopy levels in the Tawau Division of Sabah. Collections were conducted along an anthropogenic disturbance gradient (primary forest, lightly logged virgin jungle reserve and salvage logged forest) between 18:00 and 22:00 h. RESULTS: Anopheles balabacensis, a vector of P. knowlesi, was the predominant species in all collection areas, accounting for 70 % of the total catch, with a peak landing time of 18:30-20:00 h. Anopheles balabacensis had a preference for landing on humans at ground level compared to the canopy (p < 0.0001). A greater abundance of mosquitoes were landing in the logged forest compared to the primary forest (p < 0.0001). There was no difference between mosquito abundance in the logged forest and lightly logged forest (p = 0.554). A higher evening temperature (p < 0.0001) and rainfall (p < 0.0001) significantly decreased mosquito abundance during collection nights. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the potential ability of An. balabacensis to transmit P. knowlesi between canopy-dwelling simian hosts and ground-dwelling humans, and that forest disturbance increases the abundance of this disease vector. These results, in combination with regional patterns of land use change, may partly explain the rapid rise in P. knowlesi cases in Sabah. This study provides essential data on anthropophily for the principal vector of P. knowlesi which is important for the planning of vector control strategies.

Eliciting and Combining Decision Criteria Using a Limited Palette of Utility Functions and Uncertainty Distributions: Illustrated by Application to Pest Risk Analysis.

Utility functions in the form of tables or matrices have often been used to combine discretely rated decision-making criteria. Matrix elements are usually specified individually, so no one rule or principle can be easily stated for the utility function as a whole. A series of five matrices are presented that aggregate criteria two at a time using simple rules that express a varying degree of constraint of the lower rating over the higher. A further nine possible matrices were obtained by using a different rule either side of the main axis of the matrix to describe situations where the criteria have a differential influence on the outcome. Uncertainties in the criteria are represented by three alternative frequency distributions from which the assessors select the most appropriate. The output of the utility function is a distribution of rating frequencies that is dependent on the distributions of the input criteria. In pest risk analysis (PRA), seven of these utility functions were required to mimic the logic by which assessors for the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization arrive at an overall rating of pest risk. The framework enables the development of PRAs that are consistent and easy to understand, criticize, compare, and change. When tested in workshops, PRA practitioners thought that the approach accorded with both the logic and the level of resolution that they used in the risk assessments.

Economic and environmental impacts of harmful non-indigenous species in southeast Asia.

Harmful non-indigenous species (NIS) impose great economic and environmental impacts globally, but little is known about their impacts in Southeast Asia. Lack of knowledge of the magnitude of the problem hinders the allocation of appropriate resources for NIS prevention and management. We used benefit-cost analysis embedded in a Monte-Carlo simulation model and analysed economic and environmental impacts of NIS in the region to estimate the total burden of NIS in Southeast Asia. The total annual loss caused by NIS to agriculture, human health and the environment in Southeast Asia is estimated to be US$33.5 billion (5(th) and 95(th) percentile US$25.8-39.8 billion). Losses and costs to the agricultural sector are estimated to be nearly 90% of the total (US$23.4-33.9 billion), while the annual costs associated with human health and the environment are US$1.85 billion (US$1.4-2.5 billion) and US$2.1 billion (US$0.9-3.3 billion), respectively, although these estimates are based on conservative assumptions. We demonstrate that the economic and environmental impacts of NIS in low and middle-income regions can be considerable and that further measures, such as the adoption of regional risk assessment protocols to inform decisions on prevention and control of NIS in Southeast Asia, could be beneficial.

Failure of the mite-pathogenic fungus Neozygites tanajoae and the predatory mite Neoseiulus idaeus to control a population of the cassava green mite, Mononychellus tanajoa.

Monitoring of a population of the phytophagous cassava green mite, Mononychellus tanajoa (Bondar), and its natural enemies was undertaken in central Bahia, Brazil, in mid-1996. In spite of the presence of extremely high densities of the predatory phytoseiid mite Neoseiulus idaeus Denmark & Muma, the phytophagous mite population reached such high densities itself that there was total overexploitation of the cassava plants, leading to total leaf loss. Meanwhile, the mite-pathogenic fungus Neozygites tanajoae Delalibera, Humber & Hajek did not affect the M. tanajoa population in its growth phase as there was no inoculum present, even though we predict from a simple regression model that there was the potential for epizootics at that time. Soon after the M. tanajoa population crashed due to defoliation, there could have been an epizootic but there were simply no mite hosts to infect. These data demonstrate the ineffectiveness of one natural enemy (the predator) in terms of prey population regulation and demonstrate the importance of timing in the possible effectiveness of the other (the pathogen). For the pathogen, this probably explains its sporadic effect on host populations as previously reported. We conclude that the fungus is likely to be most useful as an adjunct to biological control with predatory mites other than N. idaeus.

Importance of ambient saturation deficits in an epizootic of the fungus Neozygites floridana in cassava green mites (Mononychellus tanajoa).

The mite-pathogenic fungus Neozygites floridana Fisher (Entomophthorales: Neozygitaceae) is considered to have potential for the biological control of the cassava green mite, Mononychellus tanajoa (Bondar). However, its activity is sporadic and laboratory data suggest a strong dependence on night-time saturation deficits for transmission. We report on an epizootic of this fungus in a mite population in northeastern Brazil. During the epizootic, host populations appeared to he limited by a combination of the pathogen and a predatory mite Neoseiulus idaeus (Acari: Phytoseiidae). When temperatures increased, the epizootic finished and the host population began to grow. Abiotic conditions could not explain the variation in host mortality following pickup of infective propagules in this epizootic. However, night-time saturation did help to explain the variation in transmission from infective cadavers to newly killed hosts. This supports laboratory observations that horizontal transmission between hosts is determined mainly by saturation deficits, while the process of infection is little affected by abiotic conditions. A further field observation was the near-absence of resting spores in dead mites (ca. 0.1% of cadavers), suggesting that the pathogen population was unsuccessful in producing inoculum to infect future M. tanajoa populations. The implications are that this pathogen will only be effective as a biological control agent in periods of high relative humidity, and establishment in new areas may be limited by resting spore formation.

Age-dependent rates of infection of cassava green mites by a fungal pathogen in Brazil.

Age-specific effects of invertebrate pathogens on their hosts can greatly influence the population dynamics in such interactions. Explanations for such differences are usually sought within differing intrinsic susceptibilities of the host life stages but we present data which indicate that host size, behaviour and life history may be the overriding factors determining age-specific effects of a fungal pathogen, Neozygitesfloridana (Entomophthorales: Neozygitaceae) on spider mites (Mononychellus tanajoa Bondar, Acari: Tetranychidae). Epizootics of N. floridana in spider mites are characterised by much greater relative mortality of adult females compared with other life stages (ca. 99%), despite similar physiological susceptibilities. We present empirical data that demonstrate encounter rates of mites with N. floridana increasing with life stage during an epizootic on cassava in northeastern Brazil. Estimates of the size, walking speeds and patterns, and life history of different life stages (and adult sexes) were used to calculate expected relative encounter rates which were found not to be different from the observed values (although not testable for larvae). This helps explain the different apparent susceptibility of host life stages in the field. Given the low ecological susceptibility of younger life stages to this pathogen, we predict that the interaction time between host and pathogen, determined by climatic conditions, will be critical in determining the degree of host population control in an epizootic. We further hypothesise that such variation in ecological susceptibility to pathogens can generate selection pressures on basic host traits, contributing to the sessile nature of many microarthropods.

The role of resting spores in the survival of the mite-pathogenic fungus Neozygites floridana from Mononychellus tanajoa during dry periods in Brazil.

Survival of pathogens during long periods of unfavorable conditions can be critical to their ecology and to their use in biological control. In northeastern Brazil, the mite pathogen Neozygites floridana must survive hot and dry conditions between wet seasons when it infects the cassava green mite Mononychellus tanajoa. We report on large numbers of mite cadavers bearing resting spores towards the end of epizootics in mid-1995. High within-leaf variability indicated that local factors may be important in determining resting spore formation. These spores remain in the host cadaver on a leaf until the cadaver breaks up, whereupon the spores fall freely to the soil, there to remain dormant. Laboratory simulation of field conditions led to ca. 25% of mycosed individuals bearing resting spores. Mummies (without resting spores) kept in hot and dry conditions showed little or no viability within 2 months, implying no role for survival over extended dry periods. It is proposed that resting spores form the principal means by which this pathogen survives the dry season in the study area. This has implications for its introduction to new areas in classical biological control.